The Six Five Pod | EP 271: Navigating AI's Future: GPT-5, Palantir, Lip-Bu Tan, & Industry Disruption

In this week's episode, hosts Daniel Newman and Patrick Moorhead dissect a whirlwind of tech news! From Palantir, Lip-Bu, Trump, and tariffs to the latest in GPT-5, they break down the key announcements and market shifts that are shaping the industry: 

1. Tech Industry News and Analysis: Trump's tariff threats on semiconductors and chips. Apple's investment commitments in the US. Rumors about GPT-5 release and its potential impact.

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2. Intel Leadership Challenges: Trump's call for Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s removal. Analysis of Intel's missed opportunities in the US chip manufacturing push.

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3. Palantir's Meteoric Rise: Discussion of Palantir's market valuation and performance. Analysis of the company's government contracts and AI positioning.

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4. Other Tech Company Performances: Lattice Semiconductor's positive market reception. IonQ's progress in quantum computing. Astera's growth and dependence on Nvidia.

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5. Impact of AI on Knowledge Work: How advancements in AI, particularly with the release of GPT-5, could significantly impact knowledge-based industries and consulting firms.

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6. Challenges for Chip Manufacturers: Various challenges faced by chip manufacturers, including Super Micro's underperformance and the potential impact on competitors like Dell and HPE in the AI server market.

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For a deeper dive into each topic, please click on the links above. Be sure to subscribe to The Six Five Pod so you never miss an episode.

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Or listen to the audio here:

Disclaimer: The Six Five Pod is for information and entertainment purposes only. Over the course of this webcast, we may talk about companies that are publicly traded and we may even reference that fact and their equity share price, but please do not take anything that we say as a recommendation about what you should do with your investment dollars. We are not investment advisors and we ask that you do not treat us as such.

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Daniel Newman: When Jensen was standing there with Trump and he went to the White House, I said something funny on Twitter. I said, Jensen prepping for a run for president, you know, and I got just blown up. Like, people are like, he's not American. He can't like. And I'm like, dude, did you see the emojis? Like, the squinty, laughy face with the smirk and the hahaha. I posted? I think your response would have been, it's a joke, Dan. That's your era of how you would have done it. But yeah, you know, I'm sad, Pat. I think on this podcast, we need to stop being smart. We need to stop knowing what we're talking about. Just say ridiculous things like we do on the flip. Like, we don't even believe it, but we're just ridiculously arguing things. Do it all the time. Just pure shock. And we might get even more listeners, which is pretty great because we already have what, you know, like a couple billion. I'm kidding. But I'm manifesting. 

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Daniel Newman: Well as the better host. Always great to get that preamble. You know, it's fun to see that over and over again. It's also kind of like watching the revolution of myself. Yesterday, I had that bumper reel on Fox Business, and I'm like, God, I was so fat. I gotta get new video head shots out there, you know, And I look at the bumper reel, it's like, I don't look like that anymore. I’m a changed man.

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Patrick Moorhead: I mean, the difference between how you did look and how you look now versus me, I will tell you, we could do a test, and I guarantee you I would be the fattest out there, so.

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Daniel Newman: Well, you're. You're skinny in my heart, and I see you that way. It's like a prism. I look at you, but, you know, everyone out there, you know, right before we go on anytime, I get to be kind of like, you know, Pat and I rotate if you notice the trend. Like, one week he kind of leads, the next week I kind of lead. But every time I'm leading, you know, right before he goes on, I don't know if it's because I have mood swings, but Pat's always like, be funny today. It's like, when am I not funny? I'm always funny. I'm hilarious.

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Patrick Moorhead: You always look so stressed when you come on. You're very short in your answers. Like, you're grumpy. Like, whatever meeting you have before this, can you just not have it?

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Daniel Newman: Yeah, I met with the gym. I was getting all peptides up, ready to rock and roll in this thing. I got home, I didn't get home until after midnight. Another trip. You're doing big things,making some big things happen out there. I can't say a lot. I know. I promise the industry some serious disruption over the next few months. And I just want to thank all the people who doubt me. It's inspirational. Thank you. Please come back, hang out with us more that I'm motivated right now. I'm fired up.

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Patrick Moorhead: Yeah. Daniel, you mentioned, oh, you know, a joint client and friend of ours who was talking about me. Me tweeting and what I was tweeting. I meet with some people, like CEOs of very large companies. Hey, what is Daniel doing? Like, what are the deals he's cutting? What is he up to? In other words, Daniel, they admire what you're doing.

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Daniel Newman: I appreciate that. I like when we're sitting there having a coffee, getting ready to. To. To. To fire up the texts, and you get random text, like company. I know it's not true, but then again, it's kind of fun, the idea that all these things could be true because really, no one knows what to expect. You know what they say, Pat? It's like, keep them guessing. The mystique. Like, it's the mystique and the uncertainty that keeps people on their toes. So anyways, I plan to be relatively hilarious for the rest of the show, but, you know, I'm really wasting all my good hilarity on. On shit. Posting on Twitter now. I've really taken a liking to it. I've got my young whipper snapper shy who's kind of taught me to use all caps, so I can get more people to like my tweets. But now I've also just figured out that saying smart stuff is really not the way to get anyone to look at it. It turns out the dumber and the more crass in the. In the. And the more controversial and sarcastic. And by the way, nobody, Pat, gets sarcasm. It doesn't matter which emoji I use, the grinny face with the squinty eyes or the smirky face. Inevitably, everything. I made a comment yesterday that when Jensen was standing there with Trump and he went to the White House, I said something funny in Twitter. I said, Jensen prepping for a run for president, you know, and I got just blown up. Like, people are like, he's not American. He can't like. And I'm like, dude, did you see the emojis? Like, the squinty, laughy face with the smirk and the hahaha. I posted? I think your response would have been, it's a joke, Dan. I think that's. That's your era of how you would have done it. But yeah, you know, I'm sad, Pat. I think on this podcast, we need to stop being smart. We need to stop knowing what we're talking about. Just say ridiculous things like we do on the flip. Like, we don't even believe it, but we're just ridiculously arguing things. Do it all the time. Just pure shock. And we might get even more listeners, which is pretty great because we already have what, you know, like a couple billion. I'm kidding. But I'm manifesting. I'm manifesting. We are the world's number one podcast. But hey, we gotta you doing okay. First of all, I heard. I heard a rumor because. Because like I heard a rumor that you're going to be getting back into the gym and you know you're gonna be throwing some serious weight around after a little hiatus. And you know your mood does get better when you can lift. So is it true that the chains being freed is Pat back?

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Patrick Moorhead: I would say that I am not at. I'm going to be doing one rep maxes again. But it's been two weeks. It's been two weeks since I had my hernia operation. But I am going to lift weights today. I've been torturing myself. I've been walking. Okay. And doing a treadmill and I just literally want to scream. I don't know how I did treadmill for a year, Daniel, but I was pretty motivated to burn fat. And you know you can do 3 miles an hour 10% inclined for 45 minutes. You're gonna lose some serious fat. But I'm back and I'm gonna be in a much better mood. You know, my HRV has been so low.

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Daniel Newman: Yeah.

Patrick Moorhead: And just ridiculous. And I'm. I'm convinced it's because I haven't been. I haven't been strength training. 

Daniel Newman: When your band tells you your stress, you have to be even if you're not. I mean it told you you're stressed, right? So you are.

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Patrick Moorhead: I know, Daniel. And I remember the day when you said I'm not wearing any of those electronic crap. Could be for that very good reason. And now look at you.

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Daniel Newman: I'm not tracking the stress yet though, because I know I'm stressed. I don't need anything to tell me that my head is about to explode.

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Patrick Moorhead: Well, it's not even that. Just to close this one out. It's physiological stress which has a lot to do with it. Are you getting enough rest? Are you chilling enough? Not. Oh my gosh, I'm stressed.  I really don't have a lot of that anymore. I don't know if it's age related and I've just seen everything twice and trust no one except for you and a handful of people. But yeah, I don't. I don't stress about stuff like that.

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Daniel Newman: That's good. That's good because I remember you at your worst when you were losing all that weight and you were just a miserable person to be around. But I love the new Pat. So let's keep this guy smiling.

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Patrick Moorhead: He's happy. Yeah.

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Daniel Newman: By the way, just, just for everyone out there, I just want to make two last comments about. About fitness since that's kind of like our sub theme of this tech podcast. One is no one our age really should do in one rep max is ever. It's just idiotic. I mean it's just like, it's so much ego. There's no real return on that. And the likelihood of us getting hurt in our old ages is incredibly high. Just that one point. The second point is, is, is, is treadmills are stupid. I don't care what you're doing on a treadmill. You know, it's always the least fit people in any gym I see that are always.

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Patrick Moorhead: We're gonna get so much hate mail for that.

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Daniel Newman: That's okay. I'm hoping I'm testing the market by literally live posting right now. It was a live show. Should have been a tweet, but, I need you guys. So we got a great show today. Another week, another intense news cycle. Pat was on CNBC 38 times this week. Just absolutely crushing. Turns out you're the Apple intel guy. Like when it comes to Apple and Intel, man, the, the media cannot get enough Pat Morehead. And I love to see it. I was in my hotel room, I was flexing in the mirror and I had CNBC on and I actually turned because I heard your voice. I'm like, oh, it's Pat. I took a picture. Super proud. You know, my podcast partners tearing it up anyways and so, you know, but that was busy. Trump did more tariffs. Apple's investing another 7,500,000 trillion dollars in the US but yet hasn't yet spent a dollar. Love that one. We're going to talk a little bit about whether that's real. And then Trump basically said it's time to fire Lip-Bu Tan and that he's conflicted that that created some stir. And by the way, GPT5 was released and basically it's going to take over the world. Musk tweeted that Microsoft is screwed. I'm really trying to figure out how that works when they completely control Open AI. But I have a feeling it's something to do with AGI and getting to AGI. By the way, if we're already at AGI, Pat, we are so screwed.

Patrick Moorhead: I know those jobs you thought you were going to get rid of. No, higher, higher.

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Daniel Newman: By the way, I absolutely destroyed Gartner and McKinsey on national television. There's a full clip of that. We can maybe get our producers to wind that in, where I basically called them body shops and said the end is near. I didn't make any friends this week when I said that, but their stock was down 40%, so at least I'm backed up by the market. Well, there's a couple other topics, maybe if time permits, but generally we talk too much. Then we're going to get to the flip, which is where we simulate a debate, we take a side, something controversial, and generally I win. But you've improved, Pat. I think this exercise is actually really stirring up the best of you and you're leveling up. I'm more scared than I used to be. When we started out, it felt like an automatic victory. Kind of like anybody playing the Cleveland Browns, like, automatic victory. I told you I'd be funny today. I was in. And then we'll get to the end. Bulls and Bears a little quieter week on the earnings front, but we're still in the cycle, really. I think we had the kind of heaviest lift until that last week of August when Broadcom, and of course, there's an Nvidia day coming up that week. And Dell, which I think Dell is going to have a monster quarter after Super Micro absolutely crapped down its leg. Those dollars have to go somewhere, because if Nvidia is big and Super Micro small, somebody won that big haul. All right, buddy, let's. God, I talk a lot. I mean, you told me to be funny. You told me to be happy. You know, I ended up rambling for 10 minutes to get us to The Decode. Yeah, let's go. I really hope people find us interesting because we're going to lose a lot of people in that first 10 minutes. Or we just need good chaptering, right? Do they ever stop talking? Does Dan ever stop talking? It's time for Pat to do some talking, so let's dive in here. This is big, Pat. Trump vowed 100%. So this investigation, what am I going to do on semis? 100% tariffs on chips and semis unless companies build in the USA.

Patrick Moorhead: Yeah. So this week was all about the deadline for countries who didn't have a deal with the exception of China. And that comes, I think, next week on the 12th. But essentially, you know, a couple big things came out of that. First of all, 100% tariffs on ships. And unless companies are building in the US it's very vague. There are no details, but we are seeing a little bit of a reaction there in the Apple fake news that came out that we're going to be discussing later. But some things that I wanted to point out is that there's very few bare chips that are imported into the United States for final assembly into products because we don't do final assembly of a lot of products. We do the AI servers and desktops primarily in Mexico. And then phones, PCs and tablets are in China, India, South Korea and even Vietnam. And so it's the tariff of the actual device. Right, which we know has been nullified there. But the people who are impacted are going to be anybody who does like a sub assembly for a new car. Right. Let's say the vision system where they actually bring those in and you know, let's say a Tesla, right? Whoever does that, the manufacturing here, Ford or GM, those tier ones and those auto companies at least currently will be impacted. And ironically, it motivates you to do those sub assemblies in another country, which defeats the purpose of bringing jobs here. So it's a little bit of a mess. Daniel, any hot take on chips?

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Daniel Newman: No, I mean, I think you hit it. Well, I mean, the overall industry itself, you know, this, this goes back to Trump meeting his promise. You know, my take on this was really the carrot and the stick, if you remember. And you know, you know, what I really hate is a victory lap. By the way, do we have a little producer thing yet? When I, when you start doing a victory lap that pops up and shows cars running through the finish line, we should do something cool.

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Patrick Moorhead: That's like the Kramer, buy buy buy. 

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Daniel Newman: He usually buys the top, sells the bottom. But yeah I said he's missing the carrot, meaning the threat was great, these huge tariffs, whatever, but like, you want everyone to come back, make it worth their while. Okay. And so this whole thing was like, what was going to make it worth their while. And you sort of had inklings of it with the early commitments from Jensen and from TSMC, but there was nothing specific about what it meant to these companies. Well, now, you know, he's asking Tim Cook and Jensen to play roulette. And the bottom line is you're playing black or you're playing red. Black brings your manufacturing back. Red keeps it where it is and sees what happens to you. Now you know what happens. 100% tariffs. However, he's basically giving everyone an out under some good PR. Right. The good PR is to commit some big dollars. 600 billion Apple, 200 billion Micron, you know, 300 billion TSMC. And you don't pay any tariffs on anything and anything you do. 

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Patrick Moorhead: The sad part about all this is that, you know, Intel wasn't discussed in any of this. No, but we're gonna, we're gonna be talking a lot about Intel later.

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Daniel Newman: We'll hit on that because I've got.

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Patrick Moorhead: The other portion that came up was this. The India deal was done, sealed, signed and delivered. And then Trump finds out, literally it was delivered by Lutnick. And Trump realizes that India is buying its oil from Russia and he taxes on another 25%. And again, difference here because he's already carved out Apple. Right. Apple and the other device makers. So honestly, we don't care about this anymore. We should just stop talking about any of this tariff stuff because quite frankly, it is Taco and we're not going to build any new incremental chip factories that will make a difference short term. Okay. Take three to four years to pop one of these up and hundreds of billions of dollars and we're not going to build iPhones here. The Trump administration blinked on that. Apple puts out a press release of an incremental $100 billion of made up money, funny money. And, they reduce that.

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Daniel Newman: So anyway, but if I can chime in on this, like first of all, the India thing is all about the fact that the one loss Trump has because he's got all wins right now, I mean, you don't have to like his policy, but we said he's going to do, he's been able to do okay. So the loss has been. He said he'd get us out of Ukraine, right? In the war. He would end that war quickly. He is not. So now what he's doing, he's strangling Russia. The reason he's going after Brazil has everything to do with their relationship with Russia. The reason he's going after India is there's a relationship with Russia. They can't fund a war if people stop buying from them. So he's basically trying to use economic strategy to get Putin to the table. And I heard that there's a conversation coming. So I'm just saying, these are almost like two independent things that have created an interdependence around this tariff strategy. You know, he did say, and he went on the record and basically said if you don't break ground, if you don't put shovels in the ground, if you don't start building facilities, there is going to be an accumulation of what tariffs you would have paid. So this is really where the carrot and stick comes into place. Like if these companies make these commits and don't do anything like these empty commitments that Apple has been making for some time, these commitments that are being made by tsmc, that's what we're gonna have to see. Because if all they have to do is say like, you know, because by the way, this also is really advantageous for big companies with lots of operating leverage and a huge disadvantage for small semi companies. You know, what are our friends at companies like Lattice and Coherent gonna commit a handful of billions, a handful of millions to these things? Like they depend on the supply chain. And so it's interesting to see how this slows down. But everyone's going to need to come make a deal because it's going to be non competitive. And if you have a threat of actually having to pay that tariff later, it could destroy a company. The way those accumulate, it's kind of like those fees for GDPR or that you could get hit for like 5% of all your revenue if you know. So anyways, it's a really interesting inflection, Pat. I think though, in my opinion, it's executing. He's getting what he said he was gonna get done. Done. So we sort of talked about the Apple deal. Pat, here's an interesting thing I want to get your take on though. I think they indicated something like 19 billion chips will be made in the US by Apple. I don't know exactly when, but I did the quick math. I can actually, we could flash it up if you want to see it. They only make like 21 billion total chips a year and that's including majors and minors. You know, we did the full printout of, of all the, all the, you know, circuits, all the major chips. That means there was an indication that based on current volume that Apple is going to make 90% of its entire chip haul in the U.S. what do you think? How the hell did they even come up with that?

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Patrick Moorhead: I mean, are we officially moving to the Apple made up numbers section?

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Daniel Newman: Yeah,, sorry, I was trying to just seamlessly. I didn't know I had to. Hold on, Pat. I'm going to move on to topic number two now. This is the part where we're going to talk about the Apple deal. Oh that's so good at hosting. Now I just flow from topic to topic. You don't even see it happen.

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Patrick Moorhead: No, no, no. I just wanted to make sure I'm following. Just go in there and, and pretend to be, pretend to be smart.

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Daniel Newman: Yeah, sorry about that. I had, I had Ray on my team literally do the whole tear down. He pulled it together in a few minutes. The New York Times had reached out asking me about this. So I was just curious if you, maybe you didn't hear about it, but the take was that that cooked through this 19 billion number and we looked at every chip within every device and I could not figure out how they're gonna do 90% of their chip manufacturing in the USA unless they're talking like 50 years in the future, which I guess they could be because no one's using dates right now.

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Patrick Moorhead: Yeah, Jeffries had a fun call out where they basically said, you know, it's hard to understand how Apple can invest $600 billion given you know, product cogs, annual capex, annual R D cost and the likelihood of, you know, where you were going was, was on the chip side. Right. To be able to, to do this. And listen, I've, I've been out pretty strongly. I have reached out to Apple twice on the initial investment and just  got a non answer back. But these are completely made up numbers because it serves the purpose and I guess people like us are dumb enough to fall for it. What Apple does is they plow every single expense that they have, but also the downstream benefit that they provide to developers. My gosh, they probably even put in their outcomes from enterprises using their Macs. You just throw this, this stuff in here and you know Dan, do you remember back in 2017 when Trump and Foxconn's Terry Go, who I used to know pretty well got out and, and announced a 10 billion dollar 13,000 job investment in Wisconsin to make flat panel displays. Do you know how many flat panel displays came off that line? Zero. It never, it never happened. And we see eight years later, that property and you know, I think the million square feet of buildings that were built is a Microsoft data center now. So I just think you go up to DC, you kiss the ring you make, you make a massive announcement. And that's why Daniel, I am very excited we're making an announcement at the White House on Monday that Moor Insights and Strategy is going to invest an incremental hundred million dollars in the United States. So watch out. You heard it here first.

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Daniel Newman:  I want to laugh, but I was actually trying to think of what kind of investments you could make. You like buying yourself a yacht. And you're gonna put President Trump's flag on it?

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Patrick Moorhead: No, over a hundred year period of the Moorhead legacy, when Pico and his son come in and I'm looking at my PNL and you know, what we do, and then look at the downstream benefits of the advisory that our clients have benefited from. Right. This one's going to be easy, by the way.

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Daniel Newman: The way our dollar is being devalued, we're going to need a hundred million dollars just to like, pay your mortgage.

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Patrick Moorhead: Yeah.

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Daniel Newman: So I, I just hope you're all buying crypto. It's not recommended advice, but I'm just pretty sure that's where it's all heading.

Patrick Moorhead: I want memes, I want Bored Ape. That's where I want to put my money.

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Daniel Newman: Oh, well, yeah, I mean, I mean, you could invest in that, that, that. The NFT thing was always trash. I could have told you that before it ever started. But there are a handful of cryptos that. Cryptocurrencies that do have utility stable coin things are interesting too.

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Patrick Moorhead: I lost more of that nonsense than I've lost. The only thing I lost more money on was a failed spack.

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Daniel Newman: Well, good for you. You know, it. It is. You know, I hope you judge me by my losses because I have so few. Right, so that's one of your few L's. I actually think I'm going to start doing loser laps too. I think it's important that the community starts to see humility.

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Patrick Moorhead:  No, no, this is a message to our producers. Right now we need a victory lap and a loser lap, and I will.

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Daniel Newman: Every time investing, you give hundreds of hours to something for a 2500 check. I mean, it just really shows that you're, you're savvy in your, in your investment strategy.

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Patrick Moorhead: No, I know, I know.

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Daniel Newman: That's the strategy part of Moor Insights. That's why it comes after insights. He does lots of insights, a little bit of strategy. He does a lot of both and he does it great.

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Daniel Newman: I think I even tweeted something yesterday saying, you know, one of my absolute, the best chip guys on the planet. I mean, I didn't even have a better post. So I just, I just reshared.

Patrick Moorhead: By the way, I have this emotional and mental state where anybody ever says anything nice about me. I'm doubting why they said it. And I'm thinking, what does Dan want from this? Does he want me to say he's the best chip guy or. Because he's crushing it in chips? But I do talk to my therapist about these things.

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Daniel Newman: No, it's funny because, you know, I have a lot of dad issues too. And it's like, so I've really gotten to that point in my life where I don't need anything from you. And if I say something nice, you know, it's not because I want something, just because I, I respect the work you do.

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Patrick Moorhead: Hard for me to accept.

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Daniel Newman: I'm happy when I see you on the TVs. And like I said, I'm even happy when you, when you stand to be competitive in a debate with me. It's great. I mean, my prowess is undeniable. But I do want to do these loser laps because I've gotten some calls, really wrong. And I think people see the victory laps all the time and they're probably like, what an arrogant prick. It's like, no, no, I, I literally rode the market down at 21. Like my account dropped 80%. I was so long growing up, including spacks, that I almost went broke because I was like all in baby on everything. The only thing, the only thing I can say that worked for me is when I did finally, you know, recover from that pain and everything went to the, to the. I actually just threw more money because you know what, what does a degenerate do when they don't know what to do? They just keep gambling. I'm kidding. There was a strategy there, but I did learn a lot from that. There's other losses too. I'll start, we'll start having maybe even a whole segment where we call them wins and losses because, you know, it's, it's important everyone out there understands this is a tough game to play. It's tough to predict. Like, we're going to talk Intel here for a second and then we're going to probably debate that too a little bit more. But like, we've made a lot of calls and by the way, I put a lot of my capital into thinking intel would not mess up this massive opportunity to build in the USA. It made so much sense. But here we are, President Trump tweeting out Lip-Bu Tan’s got to go. Senator Tom Cotton wrote a letter basically saying, companies, you need to talk about these conflicts. It's problematic. And you and I have said this for weeks now, like no seat at the table, not even involved. The US is a leading chip manufacturer and, well, you know, technically that manufactures the most chips in the US By a US Company, not even at the table. All this AI and all this semiconductor manufacturing, man. What do you think about that?  What did your head say to you, Pat, when you saw that tweet drop?

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Patrick Moorhead: My first thought that came into my head is, is it Lip-Bu gone. And, and so far right now he's not very careful on this. But this really goes back to, I think it's the shock effect of the Pat Gelsinger reign and the Li-Bu reign, where some could argue that Pat over communicated, said too much, was too bullish. And then, you know, right now you've got Lip-Bu, who really isn't saying much at all ever, doesn't get on TV a lot, if ever. And it's the dramatic drop of that. There was also criticism of Pat that he spent too much time in Washington and not enough time focused on design. And it's obvious now that Lip-Bu didn't spend enough time in Washington DC. I don't know if you spent any time there, you wouldn't know. He hasn't been talking about it. So I think the biggest challenge, you know, one of the biggest reasons that this hit Daniel, is because of  just the lack of communication outside of, you know, of the company, particularly with Lip-Bu. But, you know, I can't help but to think, though, that there's something else there. Meaning was there a deal that was on the table, something they wanted from Lip-Bu that the administration wanted? But, but obviously the timing of this cadence suit where they pled guilty to selling services that they do to build chips to a chip company affiliated with the PLA, which is People's Liberation Army, Chinese army, basically. The first thing is, there was an investigation. And I guarantee you 100. If Lip-Bu would have knowingly done this, he would have been indicted, too. And he might be in jail right now, but he's not. He wasn't indicted for that. And my guess is that it was. It was. It was a mistake that they made unknowingly. And trust me, you know, I worked at AMD for years and manufacturers of infrastructure for 10. So I guess I spent 20 years with people who build stuff and your export groups. I mean I knew these people and you can make, you can make these, you can make these mistakes here. Lip-Bu’s got to get up there, cut a deal within the week or I think that he, he, he will either leave on his own, get forced out or, you know, Trump's going to dig into this because if we, as we've known from Trump, he's going to bite into this and take it as far as he possibly can until he gets what he wants. And look, look at the number of tech CEOs who've gone up there who've kissed the ring, called him great. Best president ever. People you would never ever imagine, right. Particularly Satya Nadella, Sundar, that I feel were much closer to let's say Biden or Obama administrations. You see Michael Dell up there shaking hands and pressing the flesh up there at the United States winning the irace. Jensen was on stage, Lisa was on stage. Where in the heck was Intel? And you know what? They did get invited, I can tell you that with confidence. And they declined. So anyways, where is this gonna go? We will see. I think there's about a week fuse on this.

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Daniel Newman: Yeah, I mean we're gonna, we're gonna debate this, but that'll be simulated. So I'll give a little bit of an opinion here. If Trump decides to lean in on this, this is going to be a disaster. Intel has no ability right now to weather that kind of storm. The sentiment's already crap. The good news is the company's already trading below book value. So it's like why do stockings go down? It's like there's nothing more to go.

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Patrick Moorhead: $2.50 below book value. That's over 10% below book value.

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Daniel Newman: I mean in most cases it would be super investable here, but it's not. But like I'll make it real simple. He should divest everything he has. If you really want to be America's chip champion and you're in this current macro climate now again, this is not necessarily what I believe is fair. It's not necessarily even what's necessarily right. But you have the chance. You came in because you. The quote is I had to do it. Right. That's what Lip-Bu said. Like he had, he didn't have to do it in the sense of like he didn't need the money. He just felt this deep obligation to a company that he believed in and loved, serving on the board of Known for all these years. It's conflicted because of the difficult and uncertain relations that exist right now between the US and China. And there is a lot of like, hey, you really want to come do this? Get all your conflicts off the books, and the US will lean into you, and that's the only way Intel will win long before Lip-Bu even under Pat. I said the only way we get what you want, which is video building in your fabs, AMD building in your fabs, is you need the policy to basically dictate. You need them to say, look, 20% of your chips have to be manufactured by a US company in the United States. Intel missed the entire opportunity, by the way. I don't actually think it's Lip-Bu’s fault or even his conflicts. This has got to be the worst board in the history of boards like, call me up, I'll do it. I'll do it for free. I'll pay you to go in there, and I'll give better advice, by the way. I'm not saying I'm good at it. I'm just saying you're that bad. They are that bad. Every decision they've made has been shit. And if you're a leader there, I mean, you have to work against that. And what do you do? I mean, how do you even get rid of a board like this? You need a proxy vote. You need shareholders to show up. These shareholders are. Are completely confused right now because they have no idea how you could actually run a company this badly for this long that had such a tried and storied history. So I'm gonna leave it there. We'll talk more about this in The Flip. Pat, let's get to one more topic. Let's squeeze one more topic in here in the decode and just talk about GPT5. Everyone was supposed to get it right away. I don't think it happened as fast as everyone wanted, but people are starting to get it, hearing really good things. Co pilot, I believe it's already powering Co pilot.

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Patrick Moorhead: Every region, every. And it's general availability. Yes.

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Daniel Newman: Yeah, it was a little long. It was. It wasn't instantaneous, but it happened pretty quickly. And by the way, you know, it's very impressive. Although Elon Musk was already saying that on. On a number of different variables, GROK outperformed it. So GROK in some characteristics. And of course, with a lot less support, global market support is already competitive. You know. OpenAI. This has been long awaited. A lot of talk about how this is sort of more personalized. Sounds more like you. You know, we're quickly running towards this, these goal posts of AI that can do all the things that we do. I think Musk even said it will do his job better than him and it won't be long. Guess it's good when you have $300 billion, you don't have to worry about working anymore. I did say on TV yesterday that they would just have an AGI Jensen, they'll put him into a humanoid robot and he will run Nvidia for the next thousand years.

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Patrick Moorhead: That's cool. I, that's, that's so good. Kind of like you know what Steve Jobs was trying to do with all the videos he did before he passed away.

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Daniel Newman: Yeah, it didn't work by the way anymore because Tim's not, Tim's not watching those videos. Tim's just optimizing supply chains. But, but yeah, I mean that's, that's kind of where I see it going. But it's happening so fast. And by the way, you know, I mentioned early at the top of the show like McKinsey had a. There's an article in Wall Street Journal about the doom of McKinsey, the 40% fall of our friends at Gartner. That's because Pat, who the heck needs 15,000 no name analysts to, to, you know, tell you how to run your strategy when you can literally use it openly available for anywhere from zero to a couple hundred dollars a month that knows more than any human could ever possibly know. Knowledge work is really in an interesting juxtaposition right now, Pat. But you know, they went open weight, they went open models. I mean this is just a big new big news week overall. What was your, what's your read and have you played with it yet? Have you, have you done a first pass on this?

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Patrick Moorhead: Yeah, here's the thing. Probably the biggest feature. So different workflows require different types of models. I would say on the programming front this doesn't move the needle a lot. And I may be very closely related to an AI programmer who's not going to change a single tool that he uses. And I'm seeing a lot of that mirrored out there. I think one of the killer features, Daniel, is auto select where you don't have to pick the model based on what you want to do. It just does it. And for mainstream adoption I think this is absolutely the killer type of. Killer type of Use case. And it's funny, you know, within hours of GPT5 and Microsoft releasing it to basically everything. Azure, AI, Microsoft, 365, Copilot, it kind of got me thinking, well, maybe this model isn't as different as everybody thinks. Like is this truly a GPT5? Like a fundamental difference here. I'm kind of thinking at this point and being convinced this is like a GPT 4.7. Okay, they've already had a 4.5, but I need to do a lot of, a lot of analysis on this. And by the way, equally as impressive was that in the same week they open sourced two models out there with open weights, meaning you can go in and, and fine tune that. And I was just amazed. You know, AWS was the first mover from a cloud standpoint. It appeared like Dell was a first mover on the server side. AMD right had come out very quickly. Signal 65, had covered that. Qualcomm leaned into that big time. And of course Nvidia, right, this was programmed I think On a million H1 hundreds, which is, was pretty cool. But Nvidia also differentiates itself even in OSS with, you know, the way it delivers it right through Nvidia nims, that's the first thing. And the second with tailoring these models with Nvidia Nemo and the day of availability to do that I think is a big value add above and beyond the hardware for Nvidia.

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Daniel Newman: Yeah, there was quite a bit there. And of course some of this starts bleeding out to the edge with the, you know, the, this is where the Qualcomm Edge story and the on device edge story starts to become very interesting. These super powerful models that can run open source and local. So a lot there to unpack. Pat, I did do something fun, you know, because what we always do, we go too long on the decode, then we rush into this and then at the end the bulls and bears get victimized. But you got a little, you got time to go a little bit past the hour today. We're gonna be stuck. I do okay, because because I did do something ahead of this, I went down and basically asked Chat GPT 5, I said who would be the likely winner in a debate on the future of intel between Daniel Newman and Patrick Moorhead. And so just, you know, quickly, I'll summarize. Said it would be a fascinating debate. And honestly it might come down to what aspect of Intel's future they're Debating technology strategy or market viability. And they said here's how you might break down. So the debate centers on Intel's technological future process foundry competing with TSMC. It said, Pat, you would be the likely winner. It said you have deep technical and semi expertise. You understand the nuance of chip design, fabrication architecture. Went on and said a few more nice things about you. I don't need to read them all. You already know you're smart. And instead if the debate is about Intel's position in enterprise, AI or business strategy, I said I'm going to win. By the way, this thing's total. Every argument comes back with a nuance. But it said my sweet spot, you know, is business transformation and AI. And so I frame Intel's move within the context of C suite and market optics, not product specs anyways. And then it said if it's about stock performance, long term vision and leadership, it said likely a tie but with better angles. I mean this thing really played all the angles to not have a committal answer. It said you might drill into whether Intel can execute technically and I might argue strategic repositioning and political alignment. It knows us pretty well. And then it actually creates a little chart. It says debate style considerations. Oh, Patrick. Style, detailed, technical, precise, advantage in debate, best for chip process deep dives. And then it told me to be strategic, persuasive and business savvy. I like that savvy. Best for narrative framing and big picture persuasion. Anyways, final take and I'll just run this down. As I said, if the debate is technical, you win. It's actually probably right. If it says if it's a business strategy in future I may win. But it said realistically we'll end up agreeing on 70%to 80% of things.

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Patrick Moorhead: Oh my gosh.

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Daniel Newman: Cautiously optimistic about Intel's future. Not as much this week. I hope you're updating the training data with Open AI because I think if you read my tweets this week you may have changed your mind. But it is close to real time. Not real time, but a super fun way to play with this, Pat. Anyways, and then it actually asks you, it says would you like a mock debate scenario between them with sample arguments? I mean, Jesus, dude, I'm if you know, by the way, when I hear things like from people in the company, I don't know what to talk to the client about. I don't know what they might be interested in. It's like do you know how to prompt? Because like this stuff, you know, I mean, why will Agents come for our job because people say things like that. That is why we are so screwed as a humanity. Anyways. That was a lot of fun, though. Hey, you want to. You want to go after the flip? I want to basically ask the question of whether Intel, you know, is going to need a big change under this growing certainty and challenges from the White House. So one of us is going to have to argue for it, and one of us is going to argue against it. Let's see who's for it. Yeah, that's. We do that again, because you guys got it wrong. Yeah, baby,I'm going for it, Pat. Look, I'm not saying that President Donald Trump is correct when he says that Lip-Bu Tan is conflicted and has to go. I think it's an unfortunate situation that in the court of public opinion, it doesn't really matter. But what I'm going to say is because that tweet went out and because that letter came from Tom Cotton, it is absolutely 100% a requirement that intel is going to have to make a major change, whether that's replacing Frank Yeary, the chairman of the board, or Lip-Bu Tan, because there's nothing at this point that can be said that will remove the doubts that were just created by the Trump administration. Intel has completely missed its window. It didn't have a seat at the table. That was a failure of leadership. It was a failure in the transition. And frankly, despite the fact that I don't believe Lip-Bu Tan has a meaningful and conflictive relationship with China, they did pick a CEO that had a past with a company that had conflicted challenges with China and also has a massive portfolio of investments in China to lead the company. During a moment when we know the temperature between the US And China was hot, tariffs were going to be instituted, and this was going to drive meaningful policy change. Intel was set up in the best position ever to be the US Chip champion, to be the US Foundry that would be made to manufacture the chips of leading companies like Nvidia and AMD and Broadcom. But it had to do the right things. It had to go kiss the ring. It had to have a CEO in place that was willing to scream and shout from the top of their lungs that they would do whatever it takes, including accelerate Ohio, accelerate Arizona, accelerate in New Mexico. And basically what they did was they pulled back. They hired a cautious executive team. The board made one bad decision after another. So in my opinion, even though there's probably a real opportunity to debate Trump's tweet and whether there's any validity to what he said. The train has been set in motion. There are no breaks. There is no way they're going to regain the confidence of the investors. There's no way they're going to gain the confidence of the, of the found, of the, of the fabless designers that they need to use their foundries. And at this point, the only thing that could possibly write the ship would be a major change. Either Lip-Bu go or Frank Yeary goes, and at this point, maybe both have to go. This train is running and it's not stopping until a change is made.

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Patrick Moorhead: Yeah, this one's going to be tough because I basically have to argue what I don't believe in.

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Daniel Newman: I do that a lot. I do that a lot. Have fun with it. Go Ham.

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Patrick Moorhead: No, no. So here's the way that I'm going to frame this as, first of all, big changes amid growing scrutiny and challenges from the White House. The way I'm going to frame this is what are big changes? Right? When I look at a company, the biggest changes you can make are strategic changes. Okay. What businesses are you in? What customers do you address? And a lot of this other stuff is kind of nonsense. Okay. And, you know,, even individual leaders have shown maybe with the exception of, I would say, Elon Musk and at this point, Jensen Huang, everybody's replaceable. Okay. And whether it's Lip-Bu, whether it's Pat, whether it's some other, you know, there's going to, there's not going to be an intel savior that's just going to completely change it. So the reason why Intel doesn't have to make major changes which are big strategic changes. I mean, what is intel going to do? Decide to get out of the design business and, and stop designing chips now? That would be a big change and scrutiny. What are they going to do? Completely get out of the foundry business. That would be a big change. And at this point, that's nonsense. They have to be in the foundry business, if for nothing else, to spread some of the fixed costs that they would have spent in their design business across other customers. So when it comes to big changes, sure. Small changes, they, they need to make. Right. And they need Li-Bu to communicate a lot more. They need a small change. LIPU needs to go up and cut a deal with fake money that Apple has done, that Foxconn did, that Stargate did. And, and by the way, even if Lip-Bu goes and Frank Yeary goes, the whole board gets cleared. Those aren't big changes in mind. They're going to keep making the same strategic direction. That's it.

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Daniel Newman: Yeah, that was a tough one. Not for me though. That was easy. I don't know though, like it feels to me there's, you know, because there's two things that happen right when these kinds of things come out. First of all their public statement was like how many hours did that take to come up with?

Patrick Moorhead: Too long. Now Tom Cotton came out that day but nobody saw it and nobody printed it. I didn't see it until yesterday. Yeah.

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Daniel Newman: And then, and then on top of that like what could they say other than like a major change was being made? Right. Because if you're not making a major change, you're basically backing the current administration, quote unquote within Intel and you're basically going to double down and say we're going to fight the fight, we're going to back our CEO, we're going to back our strategy, we're going to back the decisions board. I mean it is clear the board absolutely stands by its decision. The problem right now is the board has no credibility whatsoever. And so you know, it's not where I want to be and this is like where I do a loser lap Pap of man did I put a lot of political capital into thinking Intel wouldn't mess this up. Like I really didn't. And again it was more. I don't have the frame of history with Lip- Bu Tan. We knew Pat pretty well. We spent a decent amount of time with him and at least I knew deep down he believed in the mission of being the US chip champion. Whether or not he was able to get that done and get to Washington and get all the buy in. But you know, the silence and the lack of contribution in the last six months when all this is going on to basically be faltering in the middle of the biggest secular technology wave of chip manufacturing in history and to have missed the trend. I mean you think it was bad when Microsoft missed mobile? Like these wheels were set in motion long before Pat. These wheels were set in motion, you know, in the, in the BK years and, and the company just because these are multi year cycles and anyway, maybe they should, maybe they should just let Lisa run it.

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Patrick Moorhead: Oh my gosh. I mean, listen, I mean AMD keeps taking market share in every conceivable area except for areas where their marketing is weak and they're not making investments which are in the commercial Space.

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Daniel Newman: Yeah, that happens. We'll keep advising anyway. All right, man, that was fun. Everybody let us know who won. Only because it was me. If anyone was doubting that. All right. All right. Well, it's another busy week in the market. Not as busy as the last two, but it was another big one. You and I were hanging out when one of the big earnings dropped. That was AMD. But let's. Let's do a quick rundown here before we send all our friends here on the pod, off running for their days. Let's do the Bulls and the Bears. For all you techno weenies that don't know what that sound is. That's supposed to be the sound of the bell, the exchange read, you know, so all those nerds that don't trade stocks. I mean, in the RobinHood era, I mean, everybody should trade, especially with the dollar. Like, you got to do something, folks.

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Patrick Moorhead: Like, I'm not. I'm just not. Because I'm an idiot. I. I prefer to lose money and put it into board apes and failed spacks that never get off the ground.

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Daniel Newman: You got to do both, man. You gotta do both. You. I mean, there's no. There's no one out there. I don't care if it's Drunken Miller or Buffett. That didn't make some bad picks. It's just they did some good ones, too, you know?

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Patrick Moorhead: Dan. I am coming up with my own fitness line. I'm getting inspired by Dan Ives. And we did see that.

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Daniel Newman: You see? I sent that to you. CNBC's got his own clothing line now. Pretty cool.

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Patrick Moorhead: No, I know. It's so funny. I saw that. I was literally about to send it to you, and I'm just like, this is such nonsense. I can't even send it.

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Daniel Newman: Yeah, I sent it because I was thinking, you know, I mean, first you're gonna have to get an ETF called Dan with two ends. Like, duh, the two H's. And then I'm gonna get a clothing line that's Polos that are a little bit too small and always make it look like I'm just getting off a pump. I just can't imagine how much people make fun of us when we're done. I don't care. It doesn't matter.

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Patrick Moorhead: Dan, you get another 10 years under your belt, you're really not going to give a. About anything. The only thing I care about is what my clients think about me. To be to be just. Just to be per. Obviously my family well, not all my family, but you know.

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Daniel Newman: Like a handful of them.

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Patrick Moorhead: Right, right, exactly. So I do care about what you think.

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Daniel Newman: Yeah, yeah. I mean, listen, there's a book called the Subtle Art of Not Giving an F. Right. And I think it's pretty real. I mean, deep down I. I actually, you know, I think it's like anyone that's saying they really don't care. You got to be almost like a sociopath to truly not care at all about what you, you know.

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Patrick Moorhead: Yeah, yeah. Care less and. Yeah.

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Daniel Newman: Like, you know, but to be able to sort of like it's like a numbing. It's like anesthesia or something like, of course I'm making. I'm making it happen. Of course you're gonna. You know, if you don't make a few enemies along the way. Right. I mean, are you even doing anything? You're probably just not doing anything. Yeah.

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Patrick Moorhead: I've also had 15 years of therapy that you haven't had. You know, and it's just. Just kind of helps me.

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Daniel Newman: Why is lunch with you or we have breakfasts in Vegas. That's therapy for me.

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Patrick Moorhead: It is. And by the way, it's a lot less expensive. Whatever restaurant we go to, it's cheaper.

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Daniel Newman: Especially now that we do cheaper restaurants. We've really found it.

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Patrick Moorhead: Yeah. Guys, we are pulling back. Fiscally responsible. And we eat at the same. What is it?

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Daniel Newman: It's a fake Grand Lux Cafe on the inside of the Palazzo. The. No, I mean it's still a smorgasbord. It's still like you know, 100. It's still a hundred dollar breakfast, which is ridiculous. But like, you know, I mean it's Vegas. Nothing's cheap. Sorry, Pat. AMD man, we sat there, we watched it and by the way, I gotta. You do your take. I'm not gonna do much of a take on amd. I'm just gonna do a quick victory lap when you're done, then I'm gonna get on to the next topic.

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Patrick Moorhead: Yeah, so I mean they blew it away on the revenue side, right? They beat. They met on the EPS side. I know people want to say they missed, but I don't know who are the clowns who use LSEG versus fact set per fact set they make. And they had a crushingly awesome quarter.

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Daniel Newman: Also wasn't that refinitive and they changed the name of it, I think.

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Patrick Moorhead:  I don't know. Anyways, and by the way that EPS softness had had 100% due to the $800 million dollar China GPU write off where they closed the quarter before the admin said yes and by the way nobody has licenses yet either Nvidia or AMD to ship this stuff out. But anyways Record Epic Record Ryzen Record Desktop, very strong gaming console flat on the embedded side for obvious reasons that that market is not good and you know their embedded side isn't as performing as well as Lattice in terms of how, how they're, they're dealing with this. But overall it's a, it's a, it's a sector issue and you know the biggest thing here is, you know to investors is you know they want a data center GPU number on a go forward basis. That's the only thing that's going to make them satisfied investors. My response is always Lisa doesn't know for certain she's still involved in bake offs. She's got a certain amount of wafers loaded. I mean one side of me says okay AMD you're going to sell everything you can make. You are buying these things. Put that out there, you know how many wafers you're putting, in the oven for the second half and put that number, put that number out there. Heck, I could probably tell you based on the COAS leaks how many chips you're going to have in the second half. Apply a pricing element to that boom, put that, put it on the low side. That's your forecast.

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Daniel Newman: Yeah, I, I just was screaming for the days into that earnings. Give us a GPU number, give us a forecast and you will probably see a rocket response. Nobody cared about anything else that happened. I knew it was gonna happen by the way, really tidy outside of that business. It's just like when you're in the secular boom and everybody out there is hearing and by the way, you know last quarter Nvidia had China and had all that cancellation and all that write down and guess what they did. They still freaking beat the number. They beat it with those numbers with the write down. They still went above. So it's like this is the problem, it's the problem is they're under the microscope of being held to the standard of Nvidia which I also have come out and said don't do that. It's not fair. They're totally different companies at a different point in the cycle. But having said that, their investor and the people that are going long that are creating this incredibly high forward multiple on the company are betting on them taking share of the GPU market. I think they're getting there. I think they will get there. I just think that you got Jensen the showman, and he gets on stage and he sings songs and he tap dances and, you know, he walks the night markets and he signs women's bra lines. And you know, Lisa's just, she's smart and she's conservative and she's just not gonna go and reach there. And I think the one great thing about that is now you got GPT5. It's very predictable. It'll tell you that, It'll tell you she's conservative. You don't even need to know it yourself. Just ask. Ask GPT 5 And the other thing is like the fade into the earnings is just pretty common. They run up and then they sort of. And just. They were not willing. If at some point though, she's willing to, if she ever does put her foot on the gas and say it, you can be damn sure it's happening. And that'll be a really good moment. There's too big of a market and I think they will, they will get it. So let's talk about another one that's kind of, kind of, runs incredibly far. I believe Palantir is almost $200 now. Pat, I shared the other day that I had my dream about buying it at 9. I bought Palantir at 9 bucks and then I sold it at 45.5x return. Thought I'd absolutely crushed it. I dreamt that I sold it at 75 and woke up sad only to realize I did worse. It would have been now a 20 bagger for me had I actually held it. But instead I invested in NFTs and, and failed spacks. Yeah, I'm never gonna let you live that one down. But it, but serious, I mean, here. So it's an interesting thing. You know, this is a company that is, you know, worth like almost $400 billion now. Worth more than AMD, by the way. And it did so with $ 327 million of net income on a billion dollars of revenue. It makes 13 cents a share. You know, it's unbelievable. I mean, this company defies gravity. It makes no sense. It trades at a price to sales of almost 104 times revenue at this point, which is just incredible. It's got, she's saying it's market cap now is 431 billion. It's worth more than like AMD, Intel throwing. It's worth more than Salesforce and Servicenow put together. I'm pretty sure right there, it's like right there. But here's what they do have going. They have a deep moat. They are the inside track on all things like the government. They just got a massive contract to support the US army and it's a company that absolutely has been built for this era. We talk about agentic or AI platform companies. This is a company that doesn't have the technical debt of being an old SaaS and an old software company. And it basically has a number of massive contracts mostly from the government and they're on the right side of the Fed investment and pivot and even its attempts to try to streamline some of its spending. A lot of those dollars will go to Palantir. And by the way, a common thread that I'm seeing with chip come out tech companies is the showman CEO. Alex Carp is an absolute showman CEO. You're invested in him. He will come out and fight the fight with bears and shorts. Try to go after him. He will come right back at you. And he's just given his retail investors incredible confidence.

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Patrick Moorhead: I can't call this a meme stock unless you want to look at the forward PE ratio on this thing. But I guess it is a meme stock, Daniel. But I don't want that to come off as negative. I like what the company does. The boldness of the CEO is incredible. Alex is an absolute rock star. He goes against the grain on almost everything. And you know, he even went, you know, he even went strong on woke when it wasn't a cool thing to do. And it could have hurt him, his company. So I just, and as it relates to the method of what they're doing, they are a disruptor which they have the ability to go in and take contracts, not only come in with lower cost, but what they're demonstrating is the ability to have better results, quicker results, real time results as opposed to waiting around for something to, to happen. So I respect this, respect this company a lot.

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Daniel Newman: All right, Pat, let's run it up at the edge of time here. But we got a couple more names. Let's tap on Lattice real quick.

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Patrick Moorhead: Yeah, real quick. I mean I think they were up to 15%. The market loved what they brought to the table and that wasn't necessarily a reflection of this gigantic growth. It was a Reflection of the call the forecast because you know quite frankly that you know the, the, the year on year isn't, isn't a pretty chart but it's the quarter on quarter and you know if you're in an industry that's having an issue and having some challenges, what you're going to focus on is quarter on quarter growth. And what that says is, the bottom has likely been hit. I've always been impressed with the gross margin. They've been very consistent. You know they had one quarter which they had a write off but they've been very consistent. So they're not having to take a price. So the gross margin is strong which is a good reflection of their future quite frankly. You know the thing that hasn't kicked in yet is, is, is the mid range Avant chip. And what I mean is kick in. They have design wins, they're getting it, but it takes time. Like you get the design and then you need to take it to your customer needs to take it to full manufacturing. I think the company is very well positioned in the age of robotics and the generative AI edge. And when that hits, it hasn't hit yet. But when you look at biped robots and I mean my gosh, the number of lattice chips that are inside of one of these bipeds is absolutely amazing. And of course, right, you can look at all Nvidia GPU servers, AMD and all the XPU folks, their chips are everywhere on that. So yeah, a nice company that you should be focused on and particularly if you look at the future, if you buy into the robotics and generative AI edge.

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Daniel Newman: Yeah, absolutely. Let's just, I'm gonna do a rapid fire here, you know IONQ, you know, advisor to the company and put that out there. So they had a great revenue quarter which is one of those companies where their losses don't really seem to matter. You know, it's performance is all about two things. One is can they show traction through revenue and beat because their revenue is much worse than expected. The other thing is can they get breakthroughs. Meaning one is there's kind of the whole quantum networking and security side which it seems to really have locked in. But the other is going to be computing. It's going to be these high fidelity Qubits and being able to show performing in the real world, it's going to accelerate really quickly. There's a lot of buzz around quantum companies. You kind of hear the CEOs like Jensen and Satya come in and out of Quantum, talking about it as a big application. But overall, you know, the company is delivering in terms of getting customers to spend money and had a big beat on revenue. That's kind of what I'm going to lean into here, Pat. I don't have anything to add but you know it's, it sort of went sideways. It went down a little, up a little. You know their losses are bigger but they've shown, I mean their recent shelf, Pat, they've shown that they can raise money very quickly. Like they have a lot of belief behind it and they have, you know, a CEO that we know well that's very good at raising money.

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Patrick Moorhead: Yeah, I'm an advisor too and I think what I'll say is there's two classifications of these companies, Quantum nonsense and quantum reality. And I put IONQ in, in the bucket of, of reality where they've got customers on the record that will talk about the benefits that they're deriving. Now that's like just the top of the iceberg of the opportunity of this. So I think the best is yet to come. But quite frankly the amount of strategic deals, the acquisitions that the company is doing is, is, I mean it to see what Niccolo De Masi has been doing.

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Daniel Newman: So you know, just maybe on a one liner before we wrap up here, Pat Estera, another company we've been paying attention to. I mean, whoa, what a, what a rocket.

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Patrick Moorhead: Yeah, I mean listen, you've got Broadcom, you've got Marvell scale up, scale out. They are the smallest time to market. They've got a lot of innovations there in their numbers and their numbers quite frankly show that. And they've got upside with CXL. They've got I would say TAM upside as well as the more AI servers are sold, they will grow as well. I think the, you know, quite frankly,, you know the biggest risk is, is the shark. That's uh, that's, that's Broadcom.

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Daniel Newman: Yeah, absolutely. And just their high dependence on Nvidia. They're very closely tied to Nvidia building them in and you know, we know what happens if a company like that loses that support it could be devastating. But the market doesn't see that happening clearly. I mean IT rallied like 30% on its earnings. I mean crazy. And you know, let's. I'll wrap up by basically saying Super Micro. In the era of all this extreme hype and excitement around AI and servers and chips underperformed on almost every metric and then came in with weak guidance. And only I can say is maybe they're cleaning up their bad books now and they're having, they're being held to a new standard. I don't know what's going on Pat, but they missed a lot of numbers. They got absolutely raked after the results and all I can think, Pat is at the end of the month Dell is going to have a really great AI number number because it's either, you know, I kind of put a tweet out that said SMCI and a piece of poop next to it and then I put a Dell with a little rocket ship and then I had HPE with kind of a shrug like because HP is another one that's got some good things but hasn't necessarily shown up in the numbers. I mean but Super Micro. Oh, what a terrible quarter.

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Patrick Moorhead: Yeah, this would be an interesting one to see, Dan, because you know there is this a little bit of a lull between H and Blackwell and you know, I think seeing the Nvidia numbers will be a super interesting thing but they're selling H series and Blackwell right at the same time like a double barrel shotgun. And as we saw there's up to a year crossover. So I'm interested to see. Yeah, Dell will be the definitive company to see if it was a Super Micro issue or an industry issue.

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Daniel Newman: All right, there we go. That's our show. There you have it. Hit subscribe, send those, send those X posts over to Pat and tell them that to polish up those debate skills and hit the gym hard this week and we're going to get after it next week, but in all seriousness, what a week. Don't expect next week to be any better, but at least I don't, I don't think I'm traveling so that's a good thing. Are you, are you on the road next week?

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Patrick Moorhead: Yeah. Monday, 8:00am I take off. I'm in San Diego for a couple days.

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Daniel Newman: Oh yeah, I know where you might be going. Hopefully, you're peppering the love and you're bringing back big projects. Yeah, that is what I love, especially for the JVs. I don't really give a crap about Moor. I'm kidding. I want to see, I want to see every part of you do well.

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Patrick Moorhead: The only reason you give a crap about more is that I'm miserable when Moor isn't doing well. And I bring that over to you because why would I just want to be miserable when I can be miserable with friends.

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Daniel Newman: Yeah, I mean, you don't want more insights to become less cash and capital, you know? Exactly.

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Patrick Moorhead: I have to change the hat. I have to change the background. Boy, we are shilling our wares today. Hardcore.

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Daniel Newman: Yep. Every brand. I've got. I've got a. I've actually got a vest with every company on it now, so I look like a NASCAR driver. It's ridiculous. And by the way, it's about to get more ridiculous, but I can't say much more than that. Anyway, thanks for being part of our community. Join us on our show, tell all your friends, listen to us every day. You can get us on the Spotify's, on the Apples, anywhere you get your podcast. Just make sure you favorite us. And by the way, don't forget to leave a review of how good it is, if you don't mind. We appreciate that. We'll see y' all later.

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